Prospect Mailbag: Forecasting NHL Opportunities

3 months ago  /  Mile High Hockey

Photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images


Is it finally time for prospects to take on depth roles in Colorado this fall? With the 2023-24 season rapidly approaching its conclusion in all leagues around the world, it’s time to put a bow on the season for the Colorado Avalanche prospects and look ahead to the upcoming NHL Draft. As always, thank you for the submittals as we try to dissect the always challenging Avalanche prospect system.



Why didn't the Avalanche sign Sward???— Rick Sallee (@ltcpain75) June 2, 2024




Defenseman Graham Sward acquired at the trade deadline in the Yakov Trenin deal goes way back with the organization as he was actually an Avalanche development camp invitee in 2021 after his original draft. Sward went unsigned that summer and Nashville drafted Sward in the fifth round in 2022. Teams just don’t circle back on prospects who they already had a good look at and declined to move forward with. This is further evidenced by Sward getting an amateur tryout with the Colorado Eagles this spring but then he didn’t get in a game.
So why bother with the trade in the first place? Nashville likely knew they weren’t interested in signing Sward when they moved him and considering his rights were soon to expire this wasn’t going to be a real prospect acquisition for the Avalanche. Colorado also doesn’t like to make contract decisions on prospects quickly and with a three-month window on Sward that wasn’t going to work on their timeline. Likely optics came into play here with the Avalanche giving up a pair of third round picks and defenseman Jeremy Hanzel for the rental services of forwards Trenin and Brandon Duhaime. Or perhaps the Avalanche thought Sward’s rights might get flipped for a low draft pick. Either way, they weren’t expecting much.
It’s true the Avalanche are light on prospects and are very stingy handing out Entry Level Contracts so they could have made room for Sward but without organizational commitment it’s also a pointless endeavor. Sward had a great overage year in the WHL scoring 81 points in 66 games but dominant seasons at 20 years of age in a junior league can be misleading, which is also something the Avalanche knew three months ago. Thus, the simplest answer is they never intended to sign Sward in the first place.

RustyShackleford: Does the salary cap crunch this summer force the Avs’ hand in giving some combination of Malinksi, Behrens, Foudy, Kovy, OO, Ritchie a legitimate look in the NHL this upcoming season?
In short, no. There’s an endless supply of league minimum salaried NHL veterans and AHL tweeners such that there’s no force to use young players. In fact, Entry Level Contracts while cheap are priced higher than NHL league minimum salary so prospects aren’t even the lowest cost option.
But let’s unpack each case individually in the order of likelihood to be an Avalanche in 2024-25.
A prospect needs preparation in the previous season for a legitimate look the following year with ideally between 20-40 NHL call-up games in a season which would point to a roster spot opportunity the next fall. Only defenseman Sam Malinski qualifies for this. His 23 games with the Avalanche in 2023-24 fits the criteria nicely but he also has a few other factors in his favor. One is age, at 26-years old when the upcoming training camp begins Malinski is hardly a prospect and in fact was too old to sign an ELC out of Cornell University, thus he is on a Standard Player Contract for $850k. This also means Malinski was only given one year of waiver exemption and now that has concluded it’s a pretty safe bet that he will be on the Avalanche roster, the question just is in a regular third pair role or as the extra seventh defenseman.
Nikolai Kovalenko is the most unusual case in the group as it’s well-known he stayed in the KHL until he was 24-years old to get an immediate NHL opportunity. That sort of came to fruition but the late-season injury clouded the talented forward’s path. Still, the Avalanche made no point to indicate that he was ever seen as part of the team. With one year (or 58 NHL games, whichever comes first) of waiver exemption left it would be wise to assume the Avalanche will intend to use that flexibility. GM Chris MacFarland says he wants prospects to “kick the door down” but the reality is those non-waiver exempt players on one-way contracts are much easier to give roster spots to while prospects wait their turn. However, in Kovalenko’s case there is at least some urgency to make it work because he’s not going to sit on the sidelines for long before returning to a large role in the KHL.
Jean-Luc Foudy is really the test case to see if the Avalanche can graduate a drafted forward to the NHL after spending a significant amount of time in their system. Entering his fifth ! season in the minors this will be the last year of the 22-year old’s ELC and waiver exemption. Foudy needs real opportunity to solidify himself as a NHL regular if even multiple call-ups are needed to get there. This is where that 20-40 games are critical so that he’s a legitimate NHL option in the fall of 2025. It was encouraging to see Foudy selected as a real playoff black ace who got to practice and travel with the Avalanche but it is going to take proactive commitment from the organization to get him across the finish line.
Top prospect center Calum Ritchie is likely a year away from really forcing the Avalanche to show their hand. Technically the 19-year old could get a look this fall but there has been no indication given by Colorado that he’s a real option at this point in time. Ritchie is still unsigned despite the majority of his first and second round 2023 draft peers have inked their NHL contracts already. A nine-game NHL trial also doesn’t happen under Jared Bednar who prefers prospects to play where they belong rather than sit around in the NHL. One more year back in the OHL won’t kill Ritchie and ideally there he can build a resume of eye-popping production and hopefully World Junior heroics which will give him some hype heading into training camp in 2025. But then he will have three years of waiver exemption ahead of him..
Both 21-year old prospect defenseman Sean Behrens and winger Oskar Olausson have multiple years of waiver exemption left and will likely only receive brief recalls from the Eagles if they get any looks at all. Behrens is a rookie and wasn’t given any promises when he signed this spring nor a big look with the Eagles on tryout so he’s unlikely on the fast-track. The shoulder injury didn’t help Olausson but the two more years he has left on his ELC won’t inspire any urgency either. Both will have to hope for major first power play unit time to pad their production totals in the AHL to gain any traction to a NHL job.



Are there any prospects outside the Avs system they should consider signing or inviting to prospect camp with June 1st and rights expiring for so many prospects coming up?— Sloppy Doc (@TomKowatch) May 30, 2024




The best answer to that question will come after the draft when undrafted players will be looking for development camp opportunities. Also, the Avalanche already have at least one agreement in place for a invited goaltender Nils Wallström. In general, the organization should mine DU talent more especially after they invited head coach David Carle to be involved in development camp last year.


Nils Wallström, transferring to Merrimack after going 19-12-2 with .920 save percentage as a freshman at AIC, going to Colorado Avalanche development camp— Mark Divver (@MarkDivver) May 24, 2024





Markopolo: How likely will it be that the Avs make moves for more picks? Be it trading down or moving someone out?
The Avalanche have rarely traded down, in fact only doing so twice when they had extra picks in the second round from the Ryan O’Reilly and Matt Duchene trades. I would like to see front office get more aggressive in using the board to target players but that’s tough to do with dwindled assets. Last year’s trade of Alex Newhook for a first and second round selection might be the only time we see a regular roster player moved for draft picks. So in short, I expect Colorado to stand pat, as they seem to fall into inertia more often than not.
The other side of the question, should the Avalanche look to trade down and acquire more draft choices, specifically with that 24th overall choice? Depending on how the draft board shakes out unexpected options might present themselves. A small move down yet still selecting in the first round and picking up a second or third rounder in the deal, which the team does not currently hold, would be ideal. If the swap moves them out of the first round I’d pass because although the system lacks quantity it is quality which is the most important factor and gives a prospect the best chance of making it through the system. That first round pedigree is crucial to maintaining favor in the organization and trade value as well.

Dr__Fart: What kind of holes do you think the Avalanche could address with their picks?
As we’ve covered already the Avalanche do not slot draft picks to take on specific roles and replace players on the big club. There’s also too much focus on drafting for certain needs and attributes relevant to the current NHL roster. The draft is about acquiring the best talent today in hopes of making an impact tomorrow and that’s where development comes in. That said, the organization’s razor thin goaltending pool could stand to get addressed as there’s nobody signed or unsigned beyond Trent Miner in the system. As for forwards and defensemen, I just want to see as much skill talent as possible. ...

Read Full Article.