Friday Feels: Power play struggles - bad luck or big trouble?
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
The Avs power play has not been good for a bit - why?? Coming off a loss to Utah last night in which the Colorado Avalanche’s power play went goalless on three tries, there’s a lot of frustration in the fanbase about the man advantage. With Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar on the unit, it shouldn’t be possible for it to struggle, right?
Wrong. Power plays go through ebbs and flows no matter the personnel, and the simple truth is those guys can be keyed on by penalty kills to minimize their effectiveness. Other coaches know that to slow this group down they have to take away the pass across from Nate to Mikko or vice versa, play tight on Cale, and clear rebounds before Valeri Nichushkin can bury them.
It’s easier said than done, to be sure, but right now it seems on paper like it’s being done pretty consistently. In December the Avs are 1-for-13 on the power play in six games, with the one goal being Makar’s game-winner in Detroit. That’s a definitively rough stretch in terms of results, but let’s analyze the process on the Avs’ road trip.
In Buffalo, the Avs generated one scoring chance and 0.21 expected goals in 2:00 minutes and gave up two shorthanded looks. That’s bad.
In Carolina they generated two chances and 0.15 expected goals in 4:28. That’s also bad.
In Detroit, they got the goal on their first shot 0:28 into the man advantage. Very good.
In New Jersey, they generated three chances and 0.21 expected goals in 3:35 — not good.
In Pittsburgh, they were more dangerous, with three chances and 0.39 expected goals in 6:00.
To give some contrast, in those same games New Jersey was the most dangerous powerplay with 1.00 expected goals in 5:35, followed by Pittsburgh at 0.84 in 8:00, and Carolina at 0.53 in 7:21. So let’s rank those three teams and the Avs by expected goals per minute:
New Jersey - 0.179
Pittsburgh - 0.105
Colorado - 0.078
Carolina - 0.072
It is not great by any means, but not the worst as we may have expected. Then there’s the Utah game - if you watched that game, you know the Avs power play was dangerous every time out there. Per the stats, they racked up five chances and 0.57 expected goals in 4:48 - a good 0.118 expected goals per minute, or the second-best rate for any team in all the games this month.
So what am I trying to say? They were dangerous last night but couldn’t score, and not dangerous other nights and couldn’t score. Power play success is determined by a solid mix of process and luck, and the process right now is sometimes good but mostly mediocre so on a night like last night when all the luck is going against Colorado they aren’t gonna score.
My only real gripe with the power play is they haven’t put Colton back on the top unit in place of Lehkonen. Eight of the Avs's top 10 power play expected goals for games came before Colton broke his foot, so something was working then that isn’t now. Might be worth a try.
FRIDAY FEELS
I am deferring all feelings to the future this week. Come back to me once we see how Mackenzie Blackwood does in burgundy and blue.
PREDICTIONS
Last week I got the wins in Detroit and Pittsburgh right, but thought they’d lose to Jersey and beat Utah. So that’s a push. This week I’ll go:
vs. Nashville: W@ Vancouver: OTL@ San Jose: W with a Fourgiev appearance@Anaheim: W
Season Total: 14-17 ...
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