Breaking down the curious case of Casey Mittelstadt
Photo by Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images
Where does the center’s game go from here? A critical factor in the path back to the Stanley Cup for the Colorado Avalanche rests on the fortification of their forward depth. A move the organization optimistically believed would solidify their second line at the center position was in their spring trade for Casey Mittelstadt. Early returns have been mixed with still a few questions lingering.
With just five assists and no goals in the last 18 games, there has been a lot of focus lately on the 26-year-old’s lack of shooting as an indicator of his decreased involvement in the play and cause for the recent production drought. While that may be true on the surface, there’s a deeper concern with Mittelstadt’s game which goes beyond individual shots and goals which has led to a team deficit of offense while he is on the ice.
Casey Mittelstadt’s last goal came on November 18. In the 16 2/3 games since that goal, he has just 7 shots on goal. He has been held without a shot in 6 of the last 7 games and doesn’t have one yet tonight.— Evan Rawal (@evanrawal) December 23, 2024
Goal scoring has never been a calling card for Casey with a career high of 18 goals set last year split between the Avalanche and Sabres. Before that, his high mark was 15 goals scored in 82 games in 2022-23 when Buffalo was top-three in scoring with 296 total goals for. Even then Mittelstadt only created 134 shots on goal in all situations that year. His current shooting output is slightly down but only to 3.61 from a rate of 3.72 shots/60 at 5-on-5 when he finished the season in Colorado. In his last year in Buffalo Mittelstadt created a bit more shot volume of 4.86 shots/60, therefore it is plausible that more comfort and confidence in the Avalanche system could lead to a slight uptick in shots but the ceiling for improvement there is pretty limited.
What’s Gone Right
Mittelstadt had a great start to the year scoring six goals and seven assists over his first ten games. This is when the Avalanche roster was arguably at its weakest but Mittelstadt found quick chemistry with Nikolai Kovalenko. Most of his work at even strength including five goals featured Kovalenko and vice versa an assist on one Kovalenko scored himself. The lone game where Mittelstadt created two 5-on-5 assists was against Ottawa on Josh Manson and Logan O’Connor’s goals.
Four other assists and a goal came on the first power play unit. Getting time on that dynamic power play unit early on was a nice boost for Mittelstadt’s production but that’s not typically his bread and butter. He has already seen 111 minutes on the man advantage with his career high of 173 minutes on Buffalo’s in the 2022-23 season, the year they had a top 10 power play. Now with Colorado healthier up front, Mittelstadt’s chance of seeing much action on the top power play unit is likely limited at best.
Hockey Viz
What’s Gone Wrong
Mittelstadt’s best talents are using his skill and keen passing ability to facilitate the firepower in Colorado’s offense but that has been sporadic at best. He went 18 games between the aforementioned October 27th Ottawa game and December 7 in Detroit without a single assist at 5-on-5. Compared to his career averages, it is currently the assists per/60 that are lagging behind that’s the concern — not goals per/60. Another point of note is that Mittelstadt’s success last season with Colorado feasted on secondary assists, which have nearly dried up entirely from .99 per/60 at 5-on-5 to .23 this year.
Nat Stat Trick
Looking deeper than the lack of production is the on-ice results, which has been shielded from the discussion on Mittelstadt’s struggles. No other NHL forward has allowed more goals against at even strength than a trio of Avalanche players. Mikko Rantanen has seen 44 goals go in the back of the net, Middelstadt 42, and Nathan MacKinnon 41. The difference is Rantanen and MacKinnon have each created 53 on-ice goals for, while Mittelstadt has lagged behind with 27. It’s a reason why he is sporting one of the lowest expected for goals percentages in the league of 41% at even strength and sitting at an NHL bottom-10 minus-17 despite the Avalanche now holding a positive goal differential.
The argument will be that Mittelstadt has had a rotating cast of wingers and no consistency, which is true however recall his best stretch of play was in October when he was playing with the likes of Calum Ritchie and Nikolai Kovalenko, neither of which are on the team any longer. Currently, Mittelstadt’s most frequent forward teammate at even strength is Mikko Rantanen and they are generating 36% of the expected goal share together. Results with the second most common linemate Valeri Nichushkin aren’t much better with 42% expected goals together. Forcing this type of second-line combination isn’t working and with the team’s two best wingers.
All Three Zones
What Now?
It’s time to start managing expectations for what Mittelstadt can and can’t provide and come up with a plan to maximize his talents. Sure it would be nice if he could generate more shot volume and see a few pucks would go into the net for a mental boost and as a byproduct of more involvement in play. What Mittelstadt really needs, though, is to get back to his identity of being a high-skill creator using his hands and vision in order to provide high-danger offense, which has completely eroded in his game. Confidence always goes a long way and it’s evident the center has picked up some more energy in his game since registering a few assists this month and it seems this is the team’s plan for him.
Slumps happen and there will be brighter days ahead but it is also important to understand why it is happening. There is certainly room for Mittelstadt to get back to the magician with the puck he once was but it is also time to question his overall fit on this team and the propensity for these rough patches to happen again. Jared Bednar preaches competitiveness as he looks for his players to win board battles and use their speed to create a suffocating forecheck. Neither of those things will ever be Mittelstadt’s strengths and there hasn’t been much room for cerebral and deliberate players on this team in the past. It’s no secret the Avalanche love energetic Swiss-Army-type players who penalty kill, take important defensive zone faceoffs, and help shut the other team down in addition to creating secondary offense.
Bednar recently addressed some of his concerns with the media:
Full quote: “He's going through it. He’s going through the challenges. I have a lot of confidence in [his] ability to be able to get this back on track, but it's lasted longer than what I would like. We've had multiple conversations. I think Casey's a little hard on himself.I…— Meghan Angley (@megangley) December 28, 2024
There is a lot of pressure on Casey to be “The Solution” as a set-and-forget second-line center and those expectations might be too much right now. Perhaps a reduction in role, which Bednar above hinted is a possibility, might be beneficial to alleviate some of that pressure and help Mittelstadt get back to what he does best. He’s not a strong play driver or finisher so finding the right mix of players he can work with is of critical importance. A consistent linemate he has chemistry with would help bring the on-ice results out of the graveyard. Since Kovalenko is now gone the next best idea might be Artturi Lehkonen as they saw 51% expected goals together last season and success together in the playoffs. If not, maybe if the Avalanche focused on a top-nine set-up they could explore further the 54% expected goals Mittelstadt has in limited action with Logan O’Connor.
It is still early enough in the season for things to turn around but Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland hasn’t been shy in switching out players that haven’t been a great fit or met expectations as Colorado tries to chase the sunset on their window of contention. It is not outrageous to wonder if Mittelstadt could be next in line. As he only signed a three-year contract with two years at $5.75M AAV left following this season it is not a prohibitive deal to move, though the same issue of finding a replacement second-line center type at an appropriate value would still exist.
Note: All data compiled from Natural Stat Trick ...
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