Weekly Grades: Game One Edition!

1 year ago  /  Mile High Hockey

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images


The Avs won their first and only game of the season this week! We’re back with the Colorado Avalanche weekly report card! Each week I’ll grade the players with a combo of the eye test and my read of the data over at Natural Stat Trick.
This week was the start of the freakin’ season baby! Let’s go!!! The Avs kicked the LA Kings to the curb with seeming ease. And I was actually in the building so we’re gonna do a somewhat unique version of this piece where I tell you my thoughts from the eye test, then see if the fancy match up.
It’s basically a test of my eye for the game. Fun!
THE GAME
Wednesday @ LA: 5-2 W
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Alexandar Georgiev: To my eye, the man was a rock back there, and made it look easy while he did it. Both goals against were complete breakdowns by the players in front of him - the first a comedy of errors as Jack Johnson and Josh Manson both capsized and left LA with essentially a two on zero, and the second just flat-out lazy play from everyone thinking the period was going to end.
The stats back me up. The Kings outshot, out-chanced, and frankly outplayed Colorado for most of the night, as you can see on this graph that shows who is controlling play:



But none of that mattered since they couldn’t beat Georgiev and his .944 save percentage. He got a little lucky too, especially on the PK in the third period when LA generated a ton of chances and hit a couple of posts, but that’s hockey - you need some luck to be player of the week. A+
STAR WATCH
Nathan MacKinnon: Can’t quibble with a three-point night, and that opening goal was a thing of beauty. He wasn’t flying around like we got accustomed to in the cup run, but he’s known to start slow so if this is just the beginning we’re in for a ton of points this year.


Thank you Nathan MacKinnon!#GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/ntGgiSh7AS— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) October 12, 2023



Natural Stat Trick didn’t love his even-strength game, but it LOVED his powerplay minutes so he graded out well on there too. Points will do that to a stat sheet. The top line was the only Avs group with positive underlying metrics, but it was not the dominant performance that the box score might indicate. B+
Cale Makar: This man did literally everything. He factored in on all five Avs goals (and of course the second Kings goal off his skate) and looked truly dominant doing it. Except for that one hiccup to end the second period, he and Devon Toews barely spent any time without possession - they’re both just so good at quickly taking the puck back in the neutral zone and leading or feeding a clean zone entry. It was beautiful to watch.


Cale Makar is the #GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/0UgXMySVq3— Denver Nose Bleeds (@DenverNoseBleed) October 12, 2023



The underlyings at even strength are not as good as I expected, and actually, rate Sam Girard as the best possession D man - which is kind of normal, he almost always grades out well and Cale matched up mostly with the Kings' top six. With powerplay time factored in Cale’s game looks a lot better. I’m gonna grade with my eyes though - A
Mikko Rantanen: A true force out there on many of his shifts, but a bit of a drifty game from him overall. He makes stickhandling through traffic look so easy though, it’s wild! And obviously four points, including one of the sickest setups you’ll see on MacKinnon’s opening goal, a wild bad-angle snipe, and a masterful slot tip. When he wasn’t coasting, he was teaching a masterclass on offense.


Mikko Rantanen is so nasty. Sets up Grade A chance, grabs rebound, spins off wall, picks spot and just does it himself pic.twitter.com/5rIwKtbiMF— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 12, 2023



Like MacKinnon, Rantanen’s Corsi was middling at even strength but still among the best on the team. Powerplay number juices his stats too, bringing his xGF% up to 78 (!!) which if you can’t tell from the (!!) is very good. I am gonna ding him for looking like he was coasting most of the night even though he KNEW I was in the building (he didn’t). B+
ROLE PLAYER HONOR ROLL
Ross Colton: I LOVED him on the PK - multiple blocked shots and stifling plays that led directly to clears! And the effort on the empty netter was fantastic. The rest of his game really didn’t jump out, but if he can be good on the PK and the second power play unit he’ll live up to that contract with better even-strength play as his line gels.


You love to see it from Miles Wood and Ross Colton, the effort pays off! #GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/lkkrl0zE1n— Mile High Hockey (@MileHighHockey) October 12, 2023



Fancy stats are bad. Really really bad. Let’s not talk about them. B
DUNCE CAP IN MY DOGHOUSE DUNGEON
Jack Johnson: Woof dude, his play on the Kings' first goal was brutal - he sent a bad pass over to Josh Manson and then got flattened by Carl Grundstrom. Manson fell and turned it over to Philip Danault who fed Grundstrom completely alone in front while Jack was trying to find his feet again. Not good. He did fire a puck toward the net his next shift that Mikko tipped home, which was a nice bounceback moment. But he didn’t even look good on the PK, where he’s supposed to make his mark, so this game was not encouraging.
Fancy stats agree. They’ve never liked him, but this game was particularly bad. D
THE REST
Bowen Byram: Hated both penalties and didn’t really notice him beyond those. Underlyings were solid! Especially on the PK - but he can’t do that when he’s the one in the box. C-
Jonathan Drouin: Love that he got an assist on the opening goal, but he really didn’t look good defensively and only managed one point on a night both his linemates put up stats. Stats liked him, but that’s probably mostly because Nate and Mikko were out there too. B-
Sam Girard: I barely noticed him, which I think is an ideal game for G actually - his game is calm and controlled in a way that only stands out when he scores or things go wrong, kind of like a mini-Toews. Stats agree - The Avs controlled even-strength play with him on the ice more than any other defenseman. A
Ryan Johansen: Looked like he was struggling to keep up with his linemates at even strength but I liked his powerplay work a lot, he really fits well in the bumper. Stats agree -with powerplay time factored he put up good numbers but without it, he stank. C+
Artturi Lehkonen: Barely noticed him at all. Bad underlying stats. C-
Kurtis MacDermid: Three minutes on the ice, two in the box. The team got two shots with him out there and allowed zero against him, so that’s good. C+
Josh Manson: See my Jack Johnson chunk for the lowlight of his night. He did look good on the PK though, and I saw some flashes of the old Manimal - I think he just needs to get his legs back under him. Underlyings were worse than Jack’s (!!). D+


KINGS SHORTY ALERT. Carl Grundstrom's hard forecheck pays off with a short-handed goal. pic.twitter.com/ZrqKK1SOhe— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 12, 2023



Valeri Nichushkin: He was moving well, but that line is a work in progress. Surprisingly led the forwards in even strength xGF%! That really wasn’t apparent watching it live. B-
Logan O’Connor: He was flying in his five even-strength minutes, and effective in five on the PK. Stats did not like his work. C
Fredrik Olofsson: Barely noticed him. Really good underlying numbers though! B-
Tomas Tatar: Looked like he was floating around a bit still trying to figure out the system and his fit with Colton and Miles Wood. Not well rated statistically. C
Devon Toews: See the Cale section for my love affair with this D pair. He’s so smooth out there and I love watching him control the ice with little picks and passes, and we’re gonna get to watch him do it for seven more years! The stats were middle of the pack, though. B


If you plan on being a contender, you simply can't let a defenseman like this walk for nothing. There will always be concerns signing someone late into their 30's, but Devon Toews is a top flight defenseman in this league. pic.twitter.com/g4PzVfjq4X— Evan Rawal (@evanrawal) October 13, 2023



Miles Wood: He is so fast. Seeing it in real life really sold me on his fit with this team, but he’ll need to iron out his defensive work and learn a little patience with the puck. Middling underlying numbers back me up - he fits, but there’s a lot of growth to do before he makes a real impact. C+
TEAM GRADE FOR THE WEEK
Love the win, don’t love the even-strength play. This team is designed to rely on its stars though, and they certainly delivered. The middle six will need to contribute more than an empty net goal for this season to be the success we’re all hoping for. B+...

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