MHH Roundtable: Fall check-in

22 hours ago  /  Mile High Hockey

Photo by Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images


Analyzing where the Avalanche stand through a quarter of the 2024-25 season. After weathering the injury storm there are questions that still linger as to the true identity of this Colorado Avalanche squad. With 19 games under their belt, nearly a quarter of the 2024-25 season has already been played and we unpack what we’ve seen thus far.
Which new player has impressed you the most?
Adrian: Ivan Ivan will likely be a popular answer to this question, but that acknowledgment is well-earned. Ivan has done precisely what he asked and appears to be right where he belongs in the NHL as part of Colorado’s fourth line. It remains to be seen if Landeskog will return, and Ross Colton is out 6-8 weeks (from the injury), so Ivan Ivan isn’t going anywhere. You know what that means? He’ll have more time to improve on his five points in 19 games played and settle further into his role with this year's Avalanche team.
Evan: Before his injury, I’ll go with Ross Colton. He started off hot and looked like he was going to be the guy the Avs would rely on whenever injuries sprouted up. Of course, he got bit by the injury bug and is out until sometime next month. Who knows if he will be the same coming back after his broken foot, but if he is, it’ll only help the point production in the Avs’ middle six.
Jess: I’ve really liked Casey Mittelstadt so far this year. He’s looked really good and has fit in really well on this Colorado team. I’m not exactly shocked at all by his level of play, as what we’re seeing right now was exactly what was advertised when it came to him, but just because it hasn’t shocked me doesn’t mean his play hasn’t been impressive. He’s just a great fit on the team on the whole, and I’m still just as thrilled that he’s an Av as I was on the day that they traded for him last season.
Jackie: Ivan has certainly been the biggest surprise and if he sticks around long enough to permanently graduate he will be a great success story. There’s a lot of season left but each day that he spends in the NHL gets closer to that finish line. The most impactful new player, however, in my eyes is Sam Malinski. Though his production of four points in 19 games is a far cry from the breakout he had last spring with 10 points in 23 games, he’s holding down a steady role on the third pair and has had more good moments than bad. The analytics bear this out with a 55.92% on-ice expected goals percentage at even strength. This also shows Malinski could stand to play a little more than his current average of 15 minutes a night, which hopefully increases as the year goes on.
Which skater (non-goalie) needs to improve their game?
Adrian: Take this answer with a grain of salt because I imagine returning from hip surgery is no easy task, much less returning as explosive as you were before said operation. Logan O’Connor used to make me do double takes that were typically accompanied by superlatives and comparisons to Nathan MacKinnon. Nowadays, he doesn’t have that same explosiveness and thus isn’t as effective on the forecheck. Logan is best when flying around and conjuring chances out of carefully crafted chaos. Hopefully, he will regain his legs, and we will see him looking more like the old LOC.
Evan: Devon Toews feels like a good answer here. Something has been off about his game all season - he only has five points in 15 games with a -6 rating, whereas his defensive pair Cale Makar has 27 points in 19 games. Jared Bednar has said he’s had a nagging lower-body injury and has been having some maintenance days. If things worsen, he should take some time off sooner rather than later to get healthy. If he’s able to keep going and get better along the way, then he’ll need to pull his weight on the blue line that Avs fans know he’s capable of.
Jess: I’ll go with Miles Wood for this one. Similarly to what Adrian talked about with Logan O’Connor, it just doesn’t seem like the Miles Wood we’re seeing currently is the Miles Wood that we all want to see, the one who’s just a bowling ball of a player, isn’t afraid to play physically, and can give you some offense here and there. That being said, obviously he’s coming off an injury, so I’m not shocked that he doesn’t look quite like himself and that it’ll likely take some time to get there, which is perfectly fine, I hope he gets back to being his old self eventually, and I believe he will.
Jackie: This will be an unpopular opinion but the Avalanche need more from Casey Mittelstadt at even strength. Yes, his 18 points in 19 games is about as much as one can ask for and it’s been good to see him get on the board consistently. However, only nine of those points have come at even strength, which to be fair is an issue with the rest of the team. Digging a little deeper on the defensive side shows some concerns, though. Mittelstadt has been on the ice for a team-high and league-high for forwards 26 goals against at evens (plus a shorthanded goal against) with only 14 on-ice goals for, which is why he’s sporting one of the league’s worst plus/minus at -13. The analytics aren’t any kinder showing Mittelstadt with a 42.66% on-ice expected goals percentage at even strength. Now of course Mittelstadt’s rotating cast of wingers hasn't helped but part of being a set-and-forget top six center is the ability to carry a line and stop the bleeding defensively. This is where Mittelstadt can hopefully evolve his game as the season carries on.
How would you address the situation in net?
Adrian: The Avalanche can’t keep dropping games due to sub-par netminding, and the current cast of characters hasn’t offered performances that give me confidence, much less their club a competitive advantage. Given the cap crunch, they don’t have a lot of options, but they have to find a solution. That must almost mean a trade, especially with Alexandar Georgiev going on Injured Reserve. The Avalanche don’t have this year's first to trade unless they finish among the worst ten teams in the league. They can’t afford to move on from a forward with two already on the mend, and they don’t have a surplus in back-end talent.
Jackie: This situation wasn’t unforeseen with Georgiev’s performance last year and the front office’s solution was to go into the year with the same NHL tandem with only four total goaltenders on NHL contract. After a half-hearted attempt at making something happen with Kaapo Kahkonen before losing him on waivers they are back at square one with no real third goaltender in the organization. The immediate need is obviously more stability in net at the NHL level but it’s all part of the same problem. A real upgrade on Georgiev would take dollars and assets they don’t have. The Avalanche M.O. is to target older RFAs who have priced themselves out of their current situation but are still on borderline backup salary. No doubt they have been looking for the successor to Georgiev for some time now, which might have to be addressed in the offseason unless Georgiev is included in a move. If the stars don’t align for a trade in the immediate term that means that they have to live with the goaltending depth chart as constructed. But that won’t stop the thousands of John Gibson references prior to the trade deadline.
Evan: I don’t know if there’s much the Avalanche can do in net for this season. They are known to not overpay for goaltenders, and ride with what they have. Neither Justus Annunen nor Alexandar Georgiev have been at their best this season, but they’ve both had their moments. Arguably, Georgiev looked like himself again before going down with injury. If they could’ve kept Kaapo Kahkonen around longer, it would’ve helped their case - but the Winnipeg Jets were ready for him on waivers again. The only way I see the Avs “addressing” the goaltending situation is by making a major move, perhaps with Mikko Rantanen’s expiring contract to bring in a long-term signed Grade-A netminder. But there’s no way anything like this happens. Maybe they move someone like Josh Manson or Sam Girard to bring in a goalie, but again, I highly doubt it.
Jess: To Evan’s point, I’m not entirely sure there’s a lot you can do right now if you’re the Avs. If you plan to address your NHL goaltending through a trade, it’s going to cost you and it’s likely going to cost you a lot. Your only real options to get an NHL-caliber goaltender through a trade currently are John Gibson and maybe a Mackenzie Blackwood, and that’s only if the Sharks are willing to make that trade, and even then, I’m not sure they are. The current goaltending market is thin right now, though that might change as we get closer to the trade deadline as teams designate themselves as buyers or sellers. In the immediate, I think the simplest option is to live with your current goaltenders. To Evan’s point again, Georgiev started to look like himself again before going down with an injury, and seemed to work through whatever issues he was having to start the year, which is a really positive sign. Furthermore, your team defense, in theory, should get better with the return of guys like Drouin, Wood, and Nichushkin. If Georgiev can continue to look like his old self and the team can play good defense in front of him, it might not be a long-term solution but in the immediate, that’s probably the simplest solution in the immediate.
Have expectations changed for the Avalanche this season?
Adrian: I know this isn’t a deep take, and it's likely the thinking that has put the Avalanche in this current predicament, but when you rock the Avalanche logo, every season is about winning a championship. The most healthy and well-crafted roster often takes Lord Stanley home. That hasn’t always been true. Look at the 2012 LA Kings or the 1986 Montreal Canadiens. It doesn’t always have to be pretty, but it won't be easy and requires elite character and resolve. The Avalanche still have that.
Jackie: Have expectations changed, probably not. But, should they? Making the playoffs is still a reasonable ask with three elite players leading the way. But grinding to get in isn’t a characteristic of a contender. How they reconcile the difference between the two is an answer the Avalanche are still searching for. It is true an experienced team can do damage in the postseason from a lower seed plus overcoming a little adversity on the way there isn’t a bad thing. Ultimately how this team defines and meets expectations will determine how the current core ages as success isn’t a given.
Evan: I think expectations have changed some. The slow start hovering around .500 was when the Avs simply had to survive. It has shaped the rest of the season going forward. So first and foremost, Colorado just needs to survive and stay as healthy as possible. If it happens, then you can get more help as the season goes on, see what’s needed at the trade deadline, and make a push in the postseason as usual.
Jess: For me, not at all so far. I still expect this team to make the playoffs when all is said and done. My kind of separate expectation for them at the beginning of the year while injuries were running rampant was to just survive, which they did in the end. It certainly wasn’t pretty, but they survived that stretch and got some really important pieces back on the other side of that stretch, so I was certainly pleased with that....

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