Opinion: The Avs current problems are quantified but go beyond the numbers

9 months ago  /  Mile High Hockey

Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images


We are looking for answers in Colorado, but they must come from inside the room. The NHL EDGE site is chalked with stats primarily to monitor the incredible talent the world's best hockey league offers. We hear a lot about "bursts" here in Colorado due to the existence of the explosive Nathan MacKinnon. The site also features team stats and a place to compare two squads side-by-side. Intriguing. It's been a weird window of games for the Avalanche, and many fans (myself included) have been searching for answers.
Here is what I decided to look into analytically.
I first tried to create goalposts for some of the metrics offered on the NHL's newest stat site. They are expressed in terms of a percentile, so I started to think about how many other teams were better than the Avs in a specific metric.
Okay, side-by-side comparison time.
I decided to go with a comparison to all 70+ point producers so far this season. My thinking was someone from the top four point-getters will win the cup. That's my opinion, but I have some numbers to back it. A top-four regular season point-getter has won the cup every season since 2017-18 when the Washington Capitals hoisted. That thinking gives us the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, and league-leading Vancouver Canucks.


NHL.com
Avs vs. Bruins NHL EDGE comparison tool



NHL.com
Avs vs. Panthers NHL EDGE comparison tool



NHL.com
Avs vs. Rangers NHL EDGE comparison tool



NHL.com
Avs vs. Canucks NHL EDGE comparison tool

The first thing that stood out was the standard narrative around this Colorado Avalanche team. They are bleeping fast. They are faster than all these squads in bursts, top speed, and skating distance stats. The Avs are geared toward speed in transition, so this makes sense to me.
Now, let's talk about what stood out in a not-so-good way, starting with shot speed metrics. It would be quite a stretch to say, "The Colorado Avalanche aren't cup contenders cause they don't shoot hard enough," but it does say something about this team stylistically. It's a team short of power shooting talent outside of Nate, Mikko, Makar, and maybe Manson. They stack up fine in shooting percentage, but I wonder how much three of these guys carry that number. Still, I don't take too much from this metric, but it is interesting.
So here's what inspired this article. The Colorado Avalanche are in the top six in offensive zone time across all situations. The Panthers and the Canucks have an advantage over Colorado here, but what concerned me was looking at the percentile markers for offensive zone time in specific situations. The Avalanche have less even-strength offensive zone time than eight squads in the NHL. They have less power-play offensive zone time than ten squads.


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Avs All Strengths Zone Time Metrics



NHL.com
Avs Even Strength Zone Time Metrics



NHL.com
Avs Power Play Zone Time Metrics

I can feel some of you thinking, "The real stat is Avs are better than at least 23 squads in terms of offensive zone time," and I get it; the Avs are better than most in all of these numbers. The thing is, I don't think we are asking if the Avalanche are "better than most" teams in the NHL; the question is, "Are the Avalanche better than the best."
For the Avalanche to be cup contenders, they must make moves strategically and in terms of personnel to emphasize maintaining offensive zone time at even strength. I feel like the eye test backs this conclusion. The Avs are great at breaking out and entering the zone, but they seem to struggle to set up and cycle, and sometimes fail to fatigue/pressure the netminder and defense consistently.
Breakaway goals and quick-hitting transition tallies are fun and exciting, but they get more complicated and less common when the playoffs roll around. That's when winning puck battles, accurate passing, and prolonged momentum steal you the crown.
Groundbreaking analysis
Okay, Adrian, more offensive zone time lends to success. You've drawn a conclusion that will shatter the minds of all hockey lovers everywhere. If I'm honest with myself, these stats are just a color-by-numbers depicting what this Avalanche team has done so far, and it would be irresponsible to use them to conclude whether the Avs will be winning a championship. I stand by my conclusion, but what needs to change to emphasize o-zone time isn't as easy as manipulating things strategically. I wonder about the impact of off-ice situations, synergy, and chemistry in the room, and a will-to-win has placed shade between the lines.
It's no secret that teams that haven't bought into the system or culture in a significant way will struggle. I wonder how roster changes have changed things inside the room. Not so much who they've gained but who they've lost. J.T. Compher was 100% all in on what Bedsy and the boys had cooking; Erik Johnson epitomized what being a team player is, and Gabe Landeskog is the captain for a reason. Add to that key guys missing time for various reasons, and you have a recipe for a detached and frustrated squad.
Winning fixes everything, but you can't win with the wrong mindset and without a certain level of camaraderie and subsequent work ethic. Hopefully, the players-only meeting that was recently held addresses some of these concerns by re-establishing and clearly communicating the standard in Colorado.
We aren’t panicking here, but does this losing streak offer constructive lessons? I’d say so. What do you think?...

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