Playoff Preview: Defense Wins Championships

2 days ago  /  Mile High Hockey

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images


Let’s take a look at how the Avs and Stars compare on the blueline! Playoffs are right around the corner, and the Colorado Avalanche drew its seemingly inevitable matchup with the Dallas Stars. We’ve already previewed the forward matchup, so let’s dive in to the defense!
Dallas Projected Defense Pairs
Thomas Harley - Ilya LyubushkinEsa Lindell - Cody CeciBrendan Smith - Matt Dumba
Top Pair
You may have noticed Miro Heiskanen is not listed there - that’s because he’s going to be out for at least the first few games of the series as he continues to recover from knee surgery. The loss of Heiskanen has been a huge blow to a Dallas defense group that already looked thin on the right side, and without him the top pair is severely limited. Thomas Harley is an elite player, and he has raised his play in Heiskanen absence - especially on the powerplay, but Ilya Lyubushkin is being asked to do far too much against top competition.

Second Pair
Esa Lindell has been among the top defensive defenseman in the league for almost a decade now, excelling in countless situations with a rotating cast of partners that haven’t seemed to limit his effectiveness. Unfortunately, Cody Ceci is the kind of partner who brings every defender down. With Ceci, Lindell’s expected goals percentage dropped from 51 to 40, shots for percentage cratered from 46 to 39, and scoring chances for mirrored that dip from 50 to 41 — yet the actual goals scored with these two on the ice remains strong at 61%.
Third Pair
Brendan Smith and Lian Bichsel have taken turns playing with Matt Dumba while Heiskanen has been out, and all three of them have posted dreadful possession metrics. Bichsel at least has upside as a hulking 20 year old with some puck skill, but Smith and Dumba are who they are at this point - nasty, mean net front defenders with limited ability to create transition offense or maintain offensive zone possession. All three are turnover prone and despite their net front prowess don’t actually post good defensive metrics as a result.
Who has the advantage?
Even with Heiskanen in the lineup, Colorado has a more well rounded defense group with a better top pair.
Devon Toews - Cale MakarSamuel Girard - Josh MansonRyan Lindgren - Erik JohnsonKeaton Middleton - Sam Malinski
Heiskanen is great but he’s no 30 goal scorer Cale Makar, and while Harley has the upside to be better offensively than Devon Toews, he hasn’t solidified himself as that guy yet and Toews’ defensive zone mastery is truly elite - plus, Toews and Makar rack up points together.


Devon Toews gives Cale Makar his 60th assist of the season with the pinpoint shot from distance!

#GoAvsGo— Hockey Daily 365 - NHL Highlights & News (@hockeydaily365.bsky.social) 2025-04-04T01:47:59.723Z



Girard and Manson haven’t gotten to play together much with both of them in and out of the lineup all year, and when they have the numbers don’t look great. They do, however, look much better than Lindell-Ceci and regardless of the underlying stats it’s simply easier to envision this pair succeeding than Cody Ceci.
Lindgren has actually played far more with Malinski than EJ, and those two RDs are likely to rotate in and out of the lineup from game to game. With Malinski, the third pair is much more dynamic. While Manson and Girard were out, they were an effective second pair with better metrics than the G-M duo put up all season, so there’s reason to believe that third pair can be a huge advantage.
EJ has been effective after returning to Colorado at the trade deadline, but is a very limited player at this point in his career. He and Middleton, who has looked more solid at the NHL level than I think anyone expected coming into the season but is a very limited player as well, would be comparable to Dallas’ Smith-Dumba pair if they ever had to play together.
So in sum, the second pairs for both teams aren’t a strength, but when Heiskanen returns Dallas may have a slight edge there since Lindell-Lyubushkin is a very steady defensive duo and Manson’s effectiveness is a big question mark coming off injury. Both the first and third pairs are clear cut advantages for Colorado, though, especially if Heiskanen isn’t at full strength when he returns — the Avalanche have a definite advantage on the blue line. ...

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