Avalanche Trade Deadline Bingo Card 2.0

6 months ago  /  Mile High Hockey

Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images


How predictable is the Avalanche front office? As the March 8th NHL trade deadline rapidly approaches all those constant trade conversations among fans and the media about how the Colorado Avalanche will navigate bolstering their roster for the stretch run will now become sharper focused as the time to reveal which moves will be made is just around the corner.
Though anything can happen in silly season there are still many aspects of this occasion that are easily predicted from both the players acquired and the assets given up as well as inferring organizational strategy. After the success of our first stab at forecasting the Avalanche trade winds from a year ago in the form of a bingo card, here’s a new update as to what may occur on or before the second Friday in March.



The Wants
There’s really only one object of desire in the hearts of Avalanche fandom and that’s a second line center. The organization doesn’t seem to find the need as pressing but are likely to obtain some forward depth. Is this the year the wants of the fanbase and the plans from the front office finally align? That has been the question looming over this entire season.
The issue is top-six centers are hard to find, expensive to acquire and require a lot of cap space. Moving major assets for a rental is short-sighted and not typically Colorado’s style plus there are no pending unrestricted free agent impact centers left worthy of such move. Maybe they go for a younger guy another organization doesn’t want to sign long-term but that screams overpayment in more ways than one. Maybe GM Chris MacFarland will turn his eye to an impact winger instead, focusing on the best player realistically available rather than forcing a move for an inferior center. Or there’s always the veteran bottom-six center type who could get coached up to a bigger role and band-aid over the holes in their lineup. None of these options are a perfect solution but one is likely to get chosen. I’m betting on door number four because General Managers love buying reputation at the trade deadline.
The other glaring need is a backup goaltender since the trusty Pavel Francouz hasn’t played the entire season and the combination of Ivan Prosvetov and Justus Annunen just doesn’t seem to give the Avalanche enough of a security blanket in net. Again, price and availability is another issue with trying to find goaltending a team can trust in the playoffs. Alexandar Georgiev is this team’s clear starter and a goaltending move isn’t likely to undermine his position or build a tandem in net. There is no backup signed for next season and Colorado is ideally looking for someone with experience who is signed cheaply with term as they need to rebuild the goaltending depth chart this summer. Should someone with that profile not be readily available, a veteran third goaltender type is a typical target for MacFarland and Colorado will have to make due with that group in net.
If somehow there’s anything left to spend after these two needs are possibly addressed, teams always love obtaining extra defensemen and penalty killers at the heading into the playoffs as there’s never enough veteran depth to go around. Caleb Jones and Sam Malinski have filled-in well on the blueline so for once the defensive depth chart is not likely to get additions but you never know.
The Price
Of course the dirty little part of the trade deadline is always what might go the other way. As the Avalanche are chasing their second Stanley Cup of this era nothing can be off the table or else they will be accused of not going “All-In” and failing to give this team the best chance to succeed. Still, any blockbuster type of move is going to be difficult this time of year with roster and cap constraints hampering contending teams who should be more interested in long-term pieces. Yes, the Artturi Lehkonen trade of 2022 could be considered one of those “big moves” but finding another Restricted Free Agent with Stanley Cup pedigree is difficult enough much less another GM who is willing to make the move now. Still, the pie-in-the-sky possibilities remain with a big price tag of a real roster player.
So, what might actually go out the door? As always draft picks are the primary currency at the trade deadline. Colorado holds all their future first round picks but have been very reluctant to part with them in the past. It would take quite a favorable deal to see one get used at this juncture but there’s always the chance for a surprise. A 4th, 5th (from the Tomas Tatar trade), 6th and 7th for the 2024 draft remain as well as every pick moving forward except for the 2025 2nd (thanks, Lars Eller). The 4th and 5th rounders for this year and next year’s 3rd are probably the most attractive and movable pieces at this juncture.
Next on the list of giveaways are prospects and the Avalanche don’t have many but could offer a couple up who still have good value. The twin 2023 first rounders in Calum Ritchie and Mikhail Gulyayev are the only players propping up the prospect pool and shouldn’t get moved outside a mind blowing deal. The 2021 second rounder defenseman Sean Behrens is set to leave the NCAA soon and will need a contract. If the Avalanche don’t foresee an aggressive path to the NHL for him it might even be prudent to move Behrens before he starts playing pro hockey and sees his value drop. There could be some ancillary interest in Ben Meyers who was a hot commodity NCAA free agent two years ago but hasn’t found a NHL job and is one NHL game away from his waiver exemption expiring, the preservation of which by the Avalanche seems deliberate. There’s also Jean-Luc Foudy and the like who other teams might value and wouldn’t be the centerpiece of a big deal but could always get packaged into one or flipped for a similar type prospect.
Finally, the elephant in the room. No, not Ryan Johansen but instead Kurtis MacDermid. The defenseman turned sometimes forward is a lovable teammate and mascot that Jared Bednar has made it clear stays on the bench when he has other options. In the last two playoff runs MacDermid’s services weren’t needed and this season in particular Colorado can’t afford to have one million dollars of cap space sitting in the press box. Yes, MacDermid could be waived and sent to the minors but the organization respects him too much for that plus they need to get one of their allotted 50 contracts off the books if they are looking to add as they currently stand at 47. This season has been setting up the whole plan of moving along MacDermid at the trade deadline with his expiring contract as heavy hearts promise him more ice time at his natural position of defense on a young team who could use some of his tough-guy presence. Altitude is already crafting the tribute video.
There’s also the matter of cap space as the Avalanche are in a pure dollar in, dollar out position and because of LTIR can’t take advantage of salary proration. Clearly any move they make will require salary retention but that might not be enough to fit a shopping spree under the cap. The common expectation is to re-home Ryan Johansen and free up $4 million in space but the fact that he has another year left on his contract will not be easy or cheap to move. Even bad teams expect to be compensated for using their cap space and Johansen’s value and reputation is at an all-time low. As much as the fanbase doesn’t want to hear it, another nickel-and-dime trade deadline might be on the horizon unless something unexpected comes up.


A reminder given it is rumor season ...#Avs have no cap space. They have ~$1.42 mil in LTIR relief, per @CapFriendly. That doesn't work like normal cap space.Avs can't add more than $1.42 mil in full-season cap hits. If they add $1.43 mil-plus, it must be money out, money in.— Corey Masisak (@cmasisak22) February 15, 2024





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