Why no one should worry about Matvei Michkov’s ice time
It’s been a while since the Philadelphia Flyers have had a star rookie, we’re not used to this. We’re no accustomed to having all the spotlight on a player experiencing so many firsts and riding the rollercoaster of expectations for someone fresh to the NHL.
So, when we see fans panicking about Matvei Michkov’s ice time after every single game; and see the reactions to whenever the 20-year-old has not been on the ice for an extended period of time throughout the game, we have to gain some context. We haven’t really seen it before: A hyped-up prospect who is expected to lead the entire franchise to a new era, deal with the ups and downs of a rookie season. Some looking-around-the-league-history is somewhat needed.
There are ample examples of a rookie like Michkov and how they were used during their rookie season. It might be wild to say, but there is most likely one every single season in the modern history of the NHL, since a Draft always takes place and then there is some starry-eyed prospect just waiting to be stepping on the big-league ice.
When it comes to Michkov, the 20-year-old Flyers winger is averaging 16:06 time-on-ice in the 49 games he has played this season, as of Monday. Only Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett are averaging more minutes per game than the rookie among all Flyers forwards, but still there has been some handwringing when it comes to how head coach John Tortorella is utilizing Michkov.
Context is needed. Not to talk down to anyone concerned about how the stern bench boss is now treating the young Michkov, but just by scrolling down some historic numbers and it’s easy to see just how common this kind of gradual introduction to the best hockey league on the planet filled with the best hockey players on the planet, is.
Maybe the most obvious example, and not just because the play a similar style of game, is Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov’s first season was at 20 years old and in 52 games played, he scored 18 points while averaging just 13:07 TOI. That is understandable because he was a third-round pick who first went down to the AHL and the Lightning didn’t really know what they truly had in the player.
Fast forward to Kucherov’s second season and he played all 82 games for Tampa, scored 65 points (similar to what Michkov is on-pace to produce a year younger), earning him third in team scoring, and still the then 21-year-old winger averaged 14:57 TOI. Over a minute less than Michkov is right now. And while the Lightning were a much better overall team and had bigger stars in Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, Kucherov was clearly the leader of the next wave of great players in that organization. Still, one of the best coaches in modern hockey history, Jon Cooper, kept Kucherov’s usage down.
But maybe looking at a mid-round draft pick slowly become a superstar in the league isn’t really the best comparison. Michkov has the pedigree of a top pick. There are expectations for when a player drafted in the first half of the first round enters the league, that he is given more opportunity than someone who might be a late-round steal.
Would wingers like the Tkachuk brothers be more apt? Matthew played 76 games for the Flames during his rookie year at 19 years old, and scored 48 points while averaging just 14:40 TOI. Brady, for a bad Senators team who could just give him every opportunity, averaged 16:01 TOI (still less than Michkov by five seconds) while scoring 22 goals and 45 points in 71 games.
Honestly, writing separate paragraphs for all of these comparisons is annoying. Let’s just spill out all the examples that we have about current star players who averaged fewer minutes than Michkov is right now, in their rookie year, since the 2010-11 season.
PlayerSeasonAgeGames playedPointsTOIMatvei Michkov2024-2520493416:06Brady Tkachuk2018-1919714516:01William Nylander2016-1719816116:01Nick Suzuki2019-2020714115:59Jack Hughes2019-2018612115:52Logan Cooley2023-2419824415:49Tim Stutzle2020-2119532915:44Matt Boldy2021-2220473915:23Matthew Tkachuk2016-1719764814:40Andrei Svechnikov2018-1918823714:39Martin Necas2019-2019643614:10Alexis Lafreniere2020-2119562113:53Evgeny Kuznetsov2014-1521803713:20Tyler Seguin2010-1119742212:13
That’s not even all the names. We just cherry picked the names that we thought would fit under the category of players holding a high draft pedigree suddenly being in the NHL for their rookie year, and played over 45 games that season. If we wanted to expand our mind for players who might have been drafted a little bit later than a top-10 pick, forwards like Seth Jarvis, Zach Benson (he was taken in the top 10 but was so young), David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand; and even our own Travis Konecny averaged fewer minutes than Michkov is right now.
Simply put, among the 392 rookie forwards since the 2010-11 season, who played over 45 games, Michkov’s average time-on-ice of 16:06 sits 64th. Just 63 rookie forwards have averaged more than the 20-year-old Flyer is right now, and among them are the top selections like Connor Bedard, Connor McDavid, Macklin Celebrini this year, Nico Hischier, Auston Matthews, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Taylor Hall. And then you get into the older rookies like Kirill Kaprizov and Artemi Panarin, making the drastic leap to the top of the lineup for their respective teams in their early 20s.
It’s a lot of names and numbers splattered across your screen, but it is to say one thing: Michkov’s supposed lack of ice time isn’t really the case. He is basically getting the minutes he should be and he might just need time adjusting, like all rookies do.
We can all take a breath....
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