Playoff Deployment: Winnipeg Jets Forwards

1 week ago  /  Arctic Ice Hockey  /  Read Time: 7 minutes 19 seconds

With the National Hockey League playoffs rapidly approaching, I thought it might be a good time for me to get into the mind of head coach Scott Arniel so I can try to determine how the Winnipeg Jets will line up their forwards in the first round. In order to do so, I figured I might as well start with exactly how the lines have performed during the 2024-25 regular season, basically by comparing the expected goals (xG%) and actual goals (aG%) stats.



Despite being relatively healthy at the forward position, Winnipeg has had 39 different combinations with a minimum of 10 minutes of ice-time to date…but I am going to focus in on just eight of those. The main reason for that is because the Jets’ coaching staff has very much leaned on three specific combinations throughout the year and I really doubt that is going to change in the post-season. Therefore, with the top 9 set, the remaining 5 trios include a bunch of varieties of the 4th line: such as the most commonly used group, the current version due to injuries to Nikolaj Ehlers & Gabriel Vilardi, a line including newly acquired Brandon Tanev, and a couple more options using potential skaters like Rasmus Kupari & David Gustafsson.



So if every Jets’ forward is healthy when the post-season kicks off, I believe it is very likely that you will see the following top nine take the ice in front of the White Out at the Canada Life Centre. Winnipeg’s top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Gabriel Vilardi easily lead the NHL in ice-time for a single line combination, with over 200 more minutes than the nearest competition (ANA’s Vatrano-Strome-Terry). The trio of Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov, & Nikolaj Ehlers sit in the 8th spot for ice-time, yet would sit in 3rd if you only counted the playoff teams. To round out the Jets’ top 9, the shutdown group of Adam Lowry, Nino Niederreiter, & Mason Appleton hold onto the 10th position in ice-time.



Beginning with the Expected Goals stats, MoneyPuck’s chart below outlines how the three Winnipeg Jets’ forward lines have performed this season:






When I look at the numbers above, I see that all three forward units are winning the xG battle by eclipsing the 50% mark, which is always a good sign. While it appears that the Winnipeg’s top trio is the best at creating offense, they actually have the lowest xGoals For Per 60 of the group (2.78). The Lowry line is at the top for getting good scoring looks (2.86) and the Perfetti-Namestnikov-Ehlers tandem are in the middle (2.79).



Defensively, it is the 2nd line leading the way in the xGoals Against per 60 with a 2.42 rating, followed by the 3rd (2.46), and the 1st (2.51) unsurprisingly trailing the other units. But creating high danger opportunities is only part of the equation, so I wanted to check out how the lines actually performed with the Actual Goals % chart below:






Once again, Winnipeg’s top nine are performing well in terms of actual goals, even better than the expected goals suggest (well above 50%). We can likely call that the Connor Hellebuyck factor, as he leads the NHL in the Goals Saved Above Expected stats with an amazing +35.9 rating. Yet when I really dug into the numbers, I discovered some interesting things.



Starting with the 3rd line, evidence of their “stone hands” reputation is in plain view when you compare their xG & aG stats (25 vs 21) which tells us that they are capitalizing at a rate lower than an average NHL shooter would. Though their other reputation for being a shutdown trio is even more evident, with the Jets getting scored on 9 times less than expected when they are on the ice (12 vs 21). The Lowry line has a rating of 2.39 Goals For per 60 and a 1.37 Goals Against per 60 on the season – a solid +1 goal advantage for the Jets with them playing.



When it comes to the Namestnikov line, they have come close to scoring as many goals as expected (24 vs 25), which is a little disappointing if you believe a hockey club’s 2nd line should be showing better scoring touch than an average NHLer would. Defensively though, the unit often described as being too small has done well by allowing 7 less goals than expected (14 vs 21). The top six trio has a rating of 2.65 Goals For per 60 and a 1.55 Goals Against per 60 on the season – another unit performing well with a +1 goal advantage.



Those Goals Against per 60 ratings for the Jets’ middle six put them in the top 25 in the entire NHL for that stat (min. of 150 minutes played), but they are behind one of Winnipeg’s 4th line combinations to give our squad three trios near the top of the league.



The Scheifele trio has had plenty of time to get used to each other this season and that has helped them to outscore expectations (48 vs 42). However, the Bucky Effect does almost disappear when it comes to Winnipeg’s top line’s defensive play as they have almost allowed as many goals as expected (36 vs 37). That likely means that the opposition are getting more high danger scoring looks against the 1st when compared to the rest of the top 9. They do have a rating of 3.17 Goals For per 60 and a 2.38 Goals Against per 60 on the season, so still have a healthy margin between goals scored & allowed – but with a goal difference of less than 1, the unit gives them the lowest advantage statistically of the top nine.



All that being said, even if I could alter Arniel’s plans of running with the above top 9, I am not sure that I would. The three lines have performed well and as long as they keep out-scoring & out-chancing the opposition I don’t think I would press for changes.



When it comes to the Winnipeg Jets’ 4th line, there have been numerous combinations used throughout the campaign, but I am going to focus in on just 5 different units. Check them out in the chart below:


















Starting off my review with #4 on the graph above, the bottom line with the most ice-time for Winnipeg this season includes Iafallo, Kupari, & Barron and the expected goals stats tell me that they are pretty much allowing as many chances as they get (51.9 xG%). If you projected that over a full 60 minutes of playing time, this trio would be expected to score 2.01 goals, while allowing 1.87.



Up next at #9, there is a 4th line with Gustafsson filling in at center for Kupari, which garnered 52.9% of the xG’s. With almost exactly 60 minutes of playing time, it is easy to see that they were better offensively than option 1 (2.7 xG vs 2.01 xG), but also worse defensively (2.4 xG vs 1.87 xG).



Trade line acquisition Tanev makes an appearance on the #10 line above with Barron & Iafallo and the unit has done great in terms of the expected goals category (67.9%). The line has an amazing 3.55 xGoals For per 60 rating in their short time together, while they have been almost as good defensively (1.59 xGoals Against per 60).



I can’t imagine we will see the trio listed at #14 above in the post-season, unless there is a parade of injuries to the forward corps. However, the depth the players involved provides Winnipeg with many options if that should come to pass. The line of Barron, Kupari, & Gustafsson did very well when they were called upon to play 4th line minutes, getting 67.9% of the expected goals. They did create scoring chances at a good rate (2.61 xGF per 60), while also limiting them effectively (1.24 xGA per 60).



Finally we get to #36 on our list, the current version of the 4th line with Barron centering Gustafsson and newly recalled Anderson-Dolan. In only 11 minutes of ice-time, the trio were extremely effective to get 72.7% of the expected goals for a whopping 4.32 xGF per 60 rating and a 1.62 xGA per 60 rating.



Once again, it is a well and good to create or limit scoring chances on the stat sheet…but what did the above 5 lines really do this year when it came to goals for & against. Follow along with me as I start checking that out in MoneyPuck’s chart below:


















So what I see above is that the start of the season Iafallo-Kupari-Barron line was expected to win the goal battle, but ended up on the wrong side of that race (4 vs 3 goals when on the ice). The numbers also show me that the trio only scored 50% of what they were expected (6 vs 3), but ended up allowing less than the data suggested (4 vs 6). In fact, this unit has the 13th best Goals Against per 60 rating in the NHL with a 1.17 rating (min. of 150 minutes played).



The Iafallo-Gustafsson-Barron group did very well in the actual goal battle (66.7%) by outscoring the opposition 2 to 1. Gus’ line ended up scoring close to expected (2 vs 2.7) and were better in their own end than suggested (1 vs 2.4).



The most likely 4th line combination if the entire Winnipeg team is healthy, the Tanev-Barron-Iafallo combo won the actual goal battle (3 vs 2), but not by as big of a margin as the numbers want it to be (60% vs 69%). The trio has scored as many goals as expected (3 vs 2.9), although they have allowed more than predicted (2 vs 1.3).



The Barron-Kupari-Gustafson line is an example of the stats and reality perfectly meeting. Almost all the numbers are the same, such as xGoals % versus Goals % (67.9 vs 66.7%), xG For versus aG For (1.9 vs 2), and xG Against versus aG Against (0.9 vs 1). So in their 43 minutes together, they were almost a textbook example of a statistically average NHL line.



I end with the current 4th line of Anderson-Dolan, Barron, & Gustafsson short stint together, who have out-performed their 72.7% xG rating by getting all the goals when they were on the ice (1 vs 0). Really too small of a sample (one game) to really dig into, so that is as far as I will go with this trio.



At the end of all that, I don’t think I have really changed my pre-set perception of the Winnipeg Jets’ situation when the puck drops on the 2024-25 NHL playoffs. The stats don’t suggest moving away from the projected line up outlined below:






But I also walk away with a better appreciation of the depth the True Northers have at the forward position. Yes, there isn’t much on the shelf if you need to replace a high scorer/play driver like Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, or Nikolaj Ehlers, however if the coaching staff has to deal with injuries they at least have plenty of defensively responsible players to pick from.



As always, would appreciate hearing any feedback in the Comment section below. Do you agree that the Jets should go with the tried & true options in the top 9 or would you tinker with things to see if Winnipeg could raise their play to another level?



Can’t wait for the White Out to start, but the True Northers have work left to do before that kicks off….like locking up the top spot in the Central and perhaps win the President’s Trophy along the way....

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