Starboy: Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs Preview
The Chicago Blackhawks are back at the United Center on Sunday night to host the Toronto Maple Leafs, the second game in as many nights for both teams.
The Maple Leafs are currently sitting in first place in the Atlantic Division based on points percentage (.625) with a slight edge over the Florida Panthers (.612), though the latter does have one more actual point currently. Before the break, the Maple Leafs were playing just under that same points pace, going 6-4-0 in their last 10, though their scoring was tighter than normal at an aggregate score of 33- 28. They also won their first game back since the break: a 6-3 victory Saturday night in Toronto against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Scoring six goals isn’t that common for Toronto and, despite having four players around a point-per-game, they don’t quite have a top-10 offense — their goals per game rate is 3.13, 12th in the league. Still, those four are quite dangerous: Mitch Marner leads the team with 71 points (16 G, 55 A) in 55 games, Auston Matthews is second with 46 points (21 G, 25 A) in 41 games, followed by William Nylander with 57 (33 G, 24 A) in 56 games and John Tavares with 47 (22 G, 25 A) in 49 games. After their big four, Matthew Knies (0.69 PPG) and Bobby McMann (0.52) are contributing at varying top-six production rates, but every other forward is well below a half-a-point per game. The Leafs have always been a top-heavy team, offensively, and this season is no exception.
On the back end, the Leafs have a solid, balanced top four for maybe the first time in years. Morgan Rielly (0.46) is their best offensive contributor on defense, but Oliver Ekman-Larsson (0.40) isn’t far behind. Their second pair of Jake McCabe (0.30) and Chris Tanev (0.27) is less able to add to the score, but they’re an above average shutdown pairing.
One thing to note about the Leafs is that they are getting good results despite being a lackluster shot metric team. They’re are just 22nd in shot attempt share (48.89 percent) and 21st in expected goals share (49.51 percent), with their defensive rates for both categories being better than their offensive rates. The offensive issues are mostly due to the lack of depth as seen above, but also because the Leafs top players can score without much zone time and from mid-danger areas. Defensively, it’s again a depth issue, as the bottom six are not great at driving possession, and the team as a whole are just so-so at shot suppression.
Luckily for the Leafs, their goaltending duo of Anthony Stolarz (.928 save percentage) and Joseph Woll (.909) have been really good in net for them, elevating them to an almost top-10 goals against rate.
Since the Leafs played last night, they did not run lines this morning in Chicago, but they’ll likely be close to those from the Carolina game. The main difference will be the starter in net, which should have Woll there as Stolarz played on Saturday.
#Leafs lines during warmups vs CAR Feb. 22/25Knies-Matthews-MarnerHolmberg-Tavares-NylanderMcMann-Domi-RobertsonLorentz-Kampf-SteevesRielly-OELMcCabe-TanevBenoit-TimminsStolarz (starter)Woll@BodogCA— David Alter (@dalter) February 22, 2025
The last time these two teams faced off, the Maple Leafs won 4-1 back on December 2, which was the second-to-last game under former Blackhawks head coach Luke Richardson. Lukas Reichel was the lone goal scorer for the Blackhawks while Matthew, Tavares, Knies and Fraser Minten scored for the Leafs. It was a dark time for the Blackhawks, obviously.
The Blackhawks are basically the exact opposite in terms of standings, sitting last in the Central Division and second to last in the league (.366). In the race to the bottom, the San Jose Sharks look like they’ve got the best lottery odds practically locked in and the Blackhawks created a little more separation between them and the Nashville Predators on Saturday with another loss. Losing is the best thing for the Blackhawks at an organizational level, but it’d be great if the team wouldn’t do so in such humdrum ways like the 5-1 defeat to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday. Those will just drag morale for the team and fans down even more.
Like the Leafs, the Blackhawks did not hold a morning skate on Sunday, so their exact lines for the game Sunday are unknown. Below is what they ran against the Jackets, though to note, Philipp Kurashev and Landon Slaggert swapped places for some time in the last game so Anders Sorensen could try that again. Arvid Soderblom will likely be in net since Petr Mrazek played last night.
Blackhawks lines in morning skate in Columbus are as expected:Slaggert-Bedard-Donato Kurashev-Nazar-BertuzziTeravainen-Foligno-Mikheyev Maroon-Reichel-SmithMartinez-Jones Vlasic-Murphy Brodie-Del MastroMrazek— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) February 22, 2025
Blackhawks — Statistic — Maple Leafs44.26% (32nd) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 48.89% (22nd)43.41% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 49.51% (21st)2.66 (28th) — Goals per game — 3.13 (12th)3.46 (30th) — Goals against per game — 2.84 (12th)45.2% (31st) — Faceoffs — 52.8% (3rd)24.6% (8th) — Power play — 22.9% (13th)81.5% (7th) — Penalty kill — 80.1% (13th)(All stats from this season)
How to watch
When: 6 p.m. CTWhere: United Center, ChicagoTV: CHSNWebstream: ESPN+, HuluRadio: WGN 720
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